
As you all presumably know by now, this Tuesday Google took an amazing step and announced that they will change their approach to China, and in a first step stop censoring search results on their Chinese Google search . They obviously are aware that "this may well mean having to shut down Google.cn, and potentially [their] offices in China". By the way, they are not announcing that they will stop offering Google services in China as some headlines suggested.
For some Chinese views, check out the posts by Jenny Zhu and Jian Shuo Wang and also ChinaSMACK. Read also "Will Google stand up to France and Italy, too?" by Rebecca MacKinnon, a piece that reminds us that it is not only China who has problems with the Internet.
Just for the fun of it, I will make some predictions on how this issue continues. Will the Chinese Government block all Google Services? Will Google retreat? What about the long term of the relationship between China and the Internet?
Google has kicked the ball back to the Chinese government by announcing that Google.cn will no longer censor it results. To what extend previously removed results already appear on the site is not clear. I was able to perform queries that resulted in images of tanks on Tian An Men, but since I didn't do these searches, say, last week I don't have anything I can compare them to. However, I don't think that uncensoring the index is just a matter of a single switch. I guess over time, more and more "sensitive" results will appear.
But in any case, Google.cn does no longer comply to Chinese law. As a consequence, I am certain that the site will be shut down. However, I don't think that the Chinese government will kick back and block all Google services. This would be perfect ammunition for all those who argue that China is a threat to the Western world. Instead, the usual harassment will continue, getting a bit worse. From time to time www.google.com will not be reachable, as will GMail and other Google services. Secure access to Google Docs doesn't work anyway now, Google Spreadsheet is completely blocked.
Yet, making Google's life a bit more difficult is just for fun. I think that the actual goal of the Chinese government is far more ambitious. In a nutshell, they aim at redefining the standards and protocols of the Internet and the Web itself. The report "Does China Hope to Remap the Internet in its Own Image?" by Richard Winfield and Kristin Mendoza gives a good summary of China's activities towards this goal.
From this perspective, the problems with Google are just a momentary nuisance. Like the Chinese proverb that I just invented says: "The dog barks, the wall stands". Let Google bark a bit. Business with China will continue and enough companies will act like Opera and Microsoft did: quiet cooperation. Why should the Chinese government block access to Google services? This would just cause a stir among Chinese netizen and put a spotlight on the Chinese censorship, an issue that the the government rather prefers to keep outside the news.
Better have a bit of fun and kick the dog from time to time. The possibilities are infinite. Why not block Google's Web crawlers from accessing the Chinese Web? What a perfect way to increase Baidu's international market share. I'm sure "they" will come up with lots of other ideas to sweeten their days.
From Google's perspective, I don't see why the statement that they are willing "to shut down Google.cn, and potentially [their] offices in China" if they have to, should mean that their will disable access to Google services from China. This doesn't make any sense. What would the advantage of Google be if GMail, Google Reader, etc were no longer accessible? The idea of Google using GMail access as a leverage against the Chinese government would imply that they really wanted to start a fight with the Chinese government. This wouldn't do any good for freedom of expression and access to information, goals that Google supports. No, I don't see any danger here.
To summarize, my prediction is that google.cn will be shut down during the next two weeks. Access to other Google services will still be possible, but getting more unreliable. The Chinese government wants to control the Internet and has long ranging plans.
Reshaping the Internet is obviously not a goal that only the Chinese government has. The US has allegedly plans in the drawer to reshape the Internets basic protocols once a digital 9-11 takes place. The EU isn't better, either, see Frances 3-strike model.
Let's be dogs and piss against walls, where ever they are.
Image uploaded to Flickr by universaltheory.



